China's Sesame Market Outlook for 2026

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# Summary of China's Sesame Market Trends in 2026 (As of Mid-October)

In brief: **Overall supply remained ample throughout the year with high port inventories, causing prices to fluctuate at low levels.** Reduced production of domestic white sesame provided a price floor, yet weak downstream demand made a major bull market unlikely; black sesame performed relatively better, with a significant price premium for high-quality, color-sorted stock.

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> Note: The following information reflects spot market conditions and **does not constitute investment advice**.

## I. Supply Landscape (Domestic + Imports)

1. **Domestic Sesame**
Production of white sesame in major growing regions—Henan, Anhui, and Hubei—dropped significantly in 2026 (industry estimates suggest a ~30% decline, with total output around 250,000 tonnes). New crops hit the market en masse between September and October; while overall quality was decent, rainfall in some regions later in the season resulted in a higher proportion of lower-grade stock. **High-quality, cleaned sesame remains scarce**, providing a floor for prices.
Origin purchase price for domestic white sesame: **5.4–5.6 RMB/jin (unprocessed/raw)**; Jiangxi black sesame (raw): 7.0–8.0 RMB/jin; Grade 1 color-sorted: approx. 8.5 RMB/jin.
2. **Imported Sesame (Mainstay of domestic consumption, accounting for over 80%)**
Diverse sources: Primarily Niger, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Brazil, and Mozambique. Zero-tariff policies for multiple African nations took effect in May, lowering import costs and ensuring more abundant supplies.
High inventory levels at Qingdao Port (which remained elevated in October) have been the primary factor suppressing price increases for imported sesame. Port Spot Market Reference (Grade 1 White Sesame):
- Ethiopian Grade 1: **10,100–10,300 RMB/ton**
- Pakistani Sesame: Approx. 8,500 RMB/ton
- Nigerian Sesame: Approx. 8,800 RMB/ton
- Myanmar Black Sesame: Standard grade approx. 15,600 RMB/ton; color-sorted premium grade 17,000–17,500 RMB/ton.

## II. Demand Side

- Traditional Downstream Sectors: Sesame oil producers, sesame paste manufacturers, the baking industry, and food filling producers. **Overall demand in 2026 was weak**; inventory stocking for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays fell short of expectations. Downstream factories generally maintained low inventories, purchasing on an as-needed basis and pressing for lower prices; there was little willingness to stockpile large quantities, resulting in limited upward pressure on prices.
- Consumption Characteristics: Essential demand remained stable, but there was a lack of explosive growth; **high-quality stock with low impurity and low aflatoxin levels was in high demand and commanded a premium, whereas standard mixed-grade stock moved slowly.**

## III. Review of Annual Price Trends (2026)

1. **First Half (January–June)**: The market continued the downward correction from the high price levels of 2025. Driven by falling overseas prices and ample import arrivals, domestic sesame prices trended downward with some fluctuation; the implementation of zero tariffs on African imports in May further stabilized import supplies.
2. **July–August**: Expectations of reduced production in West Africa and Pakistan led to a slight rebound in overseas prices, causing a modest rise in domestic port sesame prices; however, high inventory levels at ports limited the extent of the increase. 3. **September–October**: With the arrival of new domestic sesame crops coinciding with continued imports from overseas, **supply pressure is mounting; market trends are expected to fluctuate weakly with a slight downside risk. However, prices for high-quality stock remain resilient, limiting the scope for decline (estimated at 100–200 RMB/ton)** (Source: Tonghuashun Finance).

## IV. Market Outlook (End of 2026)

1. **Short-term (October–December)**
Fundamentals indicate **oversupply**, and prices are likely to **fluctuate within a narrow range at low levels**.
- Bearish factors: High port inventories, continued import arrivals, and sluggish downstream demand; 
- Bullish factors: Reduced domestic production and scarcity of high-quality stock; external market disruptions (weather, geopolitics, and exchange rates) affecting West African and Pakistani producing regions; trader losses limiting the willingness to sell off stock at low prices. 
Market divergence: Prices for standard mixed-grade stock remain weak, while **prices for high-quality stock—characterized by color sorting, cleanliness, and low mold content—remain firm, causing the price gap to widen further**.
2. **Key factors to monitor in the medium to long term**
- New-season production volumes and FOB quotes from West Africa and Pakistan;
- Inventory depletion rates at Qingdao Port;
- Operating rates of domestic food processing enterprises;
- Red Sea shipping costs and exchange rate fluctuations;
- Quality of new crops from domestic producing regions (Henan, Hubei) and farmers' selling sentiment.

## V. Risk Warnings

- Sesame is an agricultural commodity; short-term, rapid price fluctuations can easily be triggered by weather, political instability in producing regions, shipping costs, and exchange rate changes;
- Key market characteristic this year: **Heavy inventory pressure makes major market rallies unlikely; prioritize quality control when trading, and avoid betting on a massive, one-sided price surge**.